Giuliani retains GOP lead for presidential nomination as Fred Thompson gains
A Times/Bloomberg Poll shows conservatives embracing the former Tennessee senator, who has yet to enter the race. Clinton still leads Democrats, but trails Giuliani.
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Former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani holds first place in the survey, with support from 27% of the Republicans and independents who said they plan to vote in the party's 2008 primaries.
FOR THE RECORD:
Presidential poll: A chart accompanying an article Tuesday in Section A reporting the results of a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll said 31% of Democratic voters surveyed thought it was more important for the candidate they choose in the primary to have "long experience in government and policymaking" than to be someone who "bridges partisan divides." It should have said 39%. —
But Thompson, an actor who played a prosecutor on NBC's "Law & Order," runs just behind, with 21%. Indications are he will join the race within the next month.
The two other major GOP contenders, Sen. John McCain of Arizona and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, fall well short of the leaders and are in a battle for third place. McCain was backed by 12% of those polled, Romney by 10%. The rest of the crowded field is mired in single digits.
Among the Democratic candidates, the race remains little changed from a Times/Bloomberg poll in April.
New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton maintains a solid lead at 33%, followed by Illinois Sen. Barack Obama at 22%. Running third, with 15%, is former Vice President Al Gore, who continues to say he has no plans to seek the office he barely lost in 2000. Fourth is former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards at 8%.
Despite Clinton's lead, Obama is the strongest Democrat in hypothetical match-ups with Republicans in the general election, running even or well ahead of the GOP's top contenders.
Clinton, in a showing that could spark concerns among some Democrats, does not fare as well. Against Giuliani, for instance, the poll found she would lose by 10 percentage points.
Overall, the survey underscored the unsettled nature of the Republican contest, with voters splitting roughly along ideological lines.
Giuliani, whose views on abortion, gay rights and guns are to the left of many in his party, has built a wide base among moderates and independents, while Thompson has drawn conservatives, particularly among the religious right.
That dynamic, however, could change quickly. Giuliani has faced a swarm of media scrutiny of his weak spots for months, but retains a lead in national polls, although it is somewhat diminished.
Thompson, by contrast, is only starting to introduce himself. He has never endured the rigors of a high-profile campaign and has not parried with rivals in debates, as Giuliani and nine other Republicans have done three times this spring.
Thompson "has this allure, but he hasn't been tested yet," said Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus, who conducted the survey. "He has gotten a free ride so far."
Conservatives uneasy
For months, many conservatives have been uneasy with their choices. The survey shows that a substantial bloc, voters like poll respondent Ted Uhlemann, 56, of Littleton, Colo., is gravitating toward Thompson, an opponent of abortion rights and gun control.
"He's just more conservative than the rest of them," Uhlemann, an environmental engineer, said of the top Republicans in a follow-up interview. "They're all a little more liberal than I would expect the candidate for the Republican Party to be."
For Giuliani, an ace remains his leadership of New York after the terrorist strikes of Sept. 11, 2001. More than two-thirds of Republican-leaning primary voters rate a candidate's views on terrorism and national security as more important than stands on social issues. The top pick for those voters: Giuliani, who has focused his campaign heavily on his record and his commitment to fight terrorism.
For McCain, the survey pointed to lasting trouble among conservative Republicans: One in four would not vote for him under any circumstances. Their longstanding gripes have included his opposition to President Bush's tax cuts and his backing for efforts — now apparently stalled in Congress — to put illegal immigrants on a path to citizenship.
"McCain has too much of a liberal bent," said Pat Pensa, 60, a Republican housewife who lives in Kennesaw, Ga., and leans toward Thompson.
As for Romney, the poll found no advancement despite a "60 Minutes" profile, a Time magazine cover story and other national exposure in recent weeks. Also, Thompson's initial success in attracting conservatives raises doubts about Romney's drive to make inroads among those voters.
Still, polls in Iowa and New Hampshire — early-voting states where Romney has campaigned heavily — put him in the top tier, offering hope that success there could build momentum for primaries elsewhere.
Stuck on the bottom rungs in the Republican contest are former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who gets 3%; former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson, 2%; Rep. Duncan Hunter of El Cajon, 1%; and Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback, and Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, less than 1%. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who is not in the race and has said he will not decide about running until the fall, gets 9%.
When GOP primary voters were asked to choose among the top four, the field broke into upper and lower ranks. On top were Giuliani, 32%, and Thompson, 28%; below were McCain, 17%, and Romney, 14%.
In the Democratic contest, Clinton's strong support among women, liberals, minorities and older voters has kept her in first place.
"I just believe that she's right for the time," said Phyllis Fisher, 67, an Arkansas independent who plans to vote in the Democratic primary.
The poll found Clinton a heavy favorite among Democratic primary voters who value long experience in government and policy-making over an ability to bridge partisan divides.
But a majority of Democrats and independents who plan to vote in the party's nominating contests say a candidate's ability to bridge those divides is more important — and those voters favor Obama.
Among Obama's other strengths: Younger voters prefer him to Clinton, and he runs well — roughly even with Clinton — among more affluent and more educated voters.
His supporters are also more inclined than Clinton's to view the Iraq war as the most important issue in the race.
"We should have never gotten involved in it," said Kentucky nurse Frederick Cole, 52, a Democrat. Obama's opposition to the war before it started is part of what motivated Cole's support.
Beyond the top candidates, the poll found no evidence of a breakthrough by lesser-known Democrats: Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware gets 5%; New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, 4%; Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich of Ohio, 2%; and Sen. Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut, 1%.
Narrowed to three choices, Clinton finishes first with 42%, followed by Obama, 32%, and Edwards, 20%.
Good news for Giuliani
The hypothetical general-election matchups did not include Thompson, since he has not formally entered the race. In many cases, the poll found that top Democrats and the top Republicans would be locked in close contests.
The notable exceptions include Giuliani defeating Clinton, 49% to 39%, and Romney losing by double digits to Obama or Edwards. Also lopsided was Obama's margin over McCain: 47% to 35%.
Obama would defeat Giuliani, 46% to 41%, the poll found, and Edwards also ran ahead of the former mayor, 46% to 43%.
The poll of 1,056 registered voters was conducted by telephone Thursday through Sunday. Republican-leaning voters totaled 408; Democratic ones numbered 449. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points for all voters, and plus or minus 5 points for voters in each primary.
michael.finnegan@latimes.com
Jill Darling, associate director of the Times Poll, contributed to this report.
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(INFOBOX BELOW)
Still Clinton and Giuliani for 2008
Rudolph W. Giuliani still leads Republican candidates among Times Poll respondents, but conservative Fred Thompson is gaining. Here's a look at who's ahead and other issues in the run-up to the 2008 presidential primaries:
Q: If the Republican primary or caucus for president were being held in your state today and the candidates were Sen. Sam Brownback (Kan.), former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, former Gov. Mike Huckabee (Ark.), Rep. Duncan Hunter (Calif.), Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), former Gov. Mitt Romney (Mass.), Rep. Tom Tancredo (Colo.), former Gov. Tommy G. Thompson (Wis.) and actor and former Sen. Fred Thompson (Tenn.), for whom would you vote? (Includes leaners*; among people who say they'll vote Republican in the primary)
Republican primary voters
| Giuliani | 27% |
| Fred Thompson | 21% |
| McCain | 12% |
| Romney | 10% |
| Gingrich | 9% |
| Huckabee | 3% |
| Tommy Thompson | 2% |
| Hunter | 1% |
| Brownback | -- |
| Tancredo | -- |
| Other | 1% |
| Don't know | 14% |
| All GOP primary | Conserva- | |
| voters | tive GOP | |
| More likely | 11% | 8% |
| Less likely | 39 | 45 |
| Not a factor | 48 | 45 |
| Don't know | 2 | 2 |
Among Democratic primary voters
| Clinton | 33% |
| Obama | 22% |
| Gore | 15% |
| Edwards | 8% |
| Biden | 5% |
| Richardson | 4% |
| Kucinich | 2% |
| Dodd | 1% |
| Other | 1% |
| Don't know | 9% |
| Bridges divides | Experience | ||
| All Dem. | |||
| primary voters | 51% | 31% | |
| Those who would | |||
| vote for: | |||
| Obama | 31% | 11% | |
| Clinton | 21 | 51 | |
| Gore | 15 | 14 | |
| Edwards | 11 | 4 | |
| Biden | 7 | 3 | |
| Richardson | 3 | 6 | |
| Kucinich | 3 | -- | |
| Dodd | -- | 3 |
(among registered voters)
| Dem. | Ind. | GOP | Male | Female | |
| Positive way | 19% | 5% | 3% | 13% | 7% |
| Negative way | 6 | 12 | 24 | 17 | 12 |
| Not affect vote | 75 | 82 | 73 | 70 | 80 |
| Don't know | -- | 1 | -- | -- | 1 |
| Iraq | Illegal immigration | |
| The most important issue | 36% | 15% |
| An important issue, but not | ||
| most important | 58 | 66 |
| Not too important | 4 | 16 |
| Not important at all | 1 | 2 |
*Those who are leaning toward a candidate.
Answers may not total 100% where some answer categories are not shown.
Note: for more results and poll analysis, visit: http://www.latimes.com/timespoll
Methodology: The Los Angeles Times / Bloomberg Poll contacted 1,183 adults nationwide by telephone June 7 through 10, 2007. Included are 1,056 registered voters, 449 Democratic primary voters and 408 Republican primary voters. "Primary voters" include both registered party members and eligible others who plan to vote in the party primaries. The 2008 presidential election match-up questions were split among two random subgroups of 513 and 543 registered voters respectively. Telephone numbers were chosen randomly from a list of all exchanges in the nation, allowing listed and unlisted numbers to be contacted. Multiple attempts were made to contact each number. Adults were weighted slightly to conform with their respective census proportions by sex, ethnicity, age, education, and national region. The margin of sampling error for all adults and all registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For Democratic and Republican primary voters, it is plus or minus 5 percentage points. For each of the odd/even subgroups, the margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points. For certain other subgroups, the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results may also be affected by factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.
Sources: LATimes/Bloomberg Poll
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BS Ranch Perspective:
This Election is so far away that it doesn't matter what the polls are at this time in the race, they are just numbers for the pollsters to figure out where there candidate is at in the race so that they can try to gain more spots in the race and win!! So, it isn't much to pay attention to at this time.
I Believe that Rudy has the lead of those that have their hats in however if you were to go by the Survey's and Polls, Fred Thompson will be the Republican Leader when the dust is cleared, that is why I say that they are all in way to early!!
BS Ranch
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