Governor's lead grows
His 16-point edge over Angelides is widest in 20 years
By Kevin Yamamura - Bee Capitol Bureau
Last Updated 6:58 am PST Wednesday, November 1, 2006
Story appeared in MAIN NEWS section, Page A16
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has stretched his lead over Democrat Phil Angelides to 16 percentage points in the latest Field Poll, the widest margin in two decades for a California gubernatorial front-runner in the days before a general election.
The Republican governor's 49 percent to 33 percent advantage reflects Angelides' failure to reduce a double-digit gap in the contest's closing weeks despite expectations on both sides that he would do so in October.
Failing an extraordinary shift in momentum, Angelides stands to suffer defeat Tuesday in an election ripe for Democratic victories elsewhere -- and in a state known for its blue pedigree. The previous Field Poll showed Schwarzenegger with a 10-point lead in late September, 44 percent to 34 percent.
"More troubling for the Democratic candidate than the margin itself seems to be that it continues to grow for Schwarzenegger with each successive poll," said Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo.
Not since Republican Gov. George Deukmejian led Democrat Tom Bradley by 19 percentage points in 1986 has a gubernatorial candidate entered the final campaign week with a Field Poll lead as large as Schwarzenegger's. Deukmejian defeated Bradley by 23 points that year.
Angelides strategist Bill Carrick criticized the latest poll for using turnout projections he deemed "very conservative, Republican and old." He said the strong national Democratic tide would extend to California and make the race far more competitive than shown.
"Turnout is the major dynamic here," Carrick said. "It's very difficult for these polls to predict who's going to show up. I think it's the nature of the business. They take a historic look at what the electorate looks like, and that's what they poll."
DiCamillo disputed that suggestion. He said the Field Poll projects that 45 percent of voters will be Democratic, 39 percent Republican and 16 percent independents or third-party registrants, giving significant weight to Democratic turnout.
The margin of error on polling for the governor's race is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Schwarzenegger's approval rating has increased since September. The poll found a majority of the state's likely voters -- 55 percent -- have a favorable opinion of the governor, compared to 37 percent unfavorable. Angelides has increased his favorable rating to 43 percent, but his unfavorable rating is 44 percent.
The poll also found Angelides struggling to consolidate his Democratic base. Only 59 percent of Democrats back the state treasurer, compared to 85 percent of Republicans who support Schwarzenegger.
"I expected him to get a higher percentage of the Democratic vote, but we're a week out and it's not happening that way," said Schwarzenegger strategist Matthew Dowd. "Part of the reason for this is there's such a desire for bipartisanship and consensus-building, contrary to what we're seeing in Washington."
Angelides led Schwarzenegger a year ago by six percentage points, 47 percent to 41 percent, as the governor pursued a divisive special election. But Schwarzenegger rebounded this year and owned an eight-point advantage in July.
"My sense is that Angelides lost the race in the summer, and consequently he's not in position to win now," said Tony Quinn, an editor of the California Target Book, which handicaps political races. "You've got to be on the surfboard before the Democratic wave hits, and he's not even on the surfboard."
With a week remaining until Election Day, the Angelides campaign has to hope "something miraculous and unexpected will happen," said Darry Sragow, a Democratic strategist.
"When you are in the camp that has 33 percent, you take note of the fact that your opponent is below 50 percent and you prepare to launch as many Hail Mary passes as you can launch before you run out of downs," Sragow said. "Every once in a while, the unexpected happens."
Angelides recently has focused exclusively on boosting Democratic turnout by touring labor halls and hosting rallies with Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., and the 2004 Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts.
Schwarzenegger has promoted public works bonds on Tuesday's ballot while using his incumbency to visit a wildfire in Southern California and offer a $100,000 reward in the case of a Sacramento County sheriff's deputy killed in the line of duty last week.
Nita Scott, 52, a Roseville Republican who participated in the Field Poll, said she prefers Schwarzenegger because she feels he has emphasized increasing jobs in California and keeping companies from moving elsewhere.
"He's trying to work with the Democrats and find a happy medium that will be good for the state," Scott said.
But Anne Forrest, a 71-year-old Sacramento resident, said she has been a longtime Democrat who voted absentee for Angelides because "there's no way I can bring myself to vote for a Republican."
"I really don't trust Governor Schwarzenegger," Forrest said, "though I appreciate some of the environmental legislation he has signed."
Both candidates went back to school Tuesday.
Angelides held court in a government class at Kennedy High School with scholar Cornel West and state Senate candidate Darrell Steinberg.
"I want to make sure you have the best teachers, the smallest class sizes, that we lower tuition and fees at colleges and increase financial aid so more of you guys can go to college," Angelides said.
Schwarzenegger visited Florin High School to promote the $10.4 billion education bond that is part of the infrastructure package.
"We are leading again," Schwarzenegger said. "We are leading the nation and we are leading the world in some of these areas, and I think this is something we Californians ought to be very proud of."
Elsewhere in the Field Poll, U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat, led Republican challenger Richard Mountjoy by 55 percent to 33 percent in her bid for a third full term. Her lead has remained consistent throughout the year.
About the writer:
- The Bee's Kevin Yamamura can be reached at (916) 326-5548 or kyamamura@sacbee.com. Andy Furillo of The Bee Capitol Bureau contributed to this report.
State Treasurer Phil Angelides, center, the Democratic candidate for governor, on Tuesday addresses teens at Kennedy High, the alma mater of Princeton professor Cornel West, left, a renowned civil rights scholar. Angelides spoke about expanding educational opportunities. Sacramento Bee/Brian Baer